bitcoin options traders are gearing up for a significant event as they lock in $365 million in options expiring just days after the upcoming US presidential election on November 4th. These election expiry options, set to settle on November 8th, have been actively traded on Deribit for the past month, showcasing a keen interest in crypto assets surrounding the political event.
According to data from Deribit, the notional open interest for these options currently stands at $364.065 million, indicating a substantial amount of speculation in the market. Traders are eying valuable opportunities that the election might bring to the digital assets industry, with hopes of capitalizing on potential price movements.
Traders Target New bitcoin All-Time High Post-Election
Among the options being traded, call options dominate the market with 67% of the total open interest, while put options account for the remaining 33%. This distribution results in a put-call ratio of less than 0.50, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders who are anticipating significant price increases post-election.
The majority of open interest is concentrated in higher strike calls ranging from $70,000 to $140,000, signaling traders' expectations for a new bitcoin all-time high that surpasses the previous peak of $73,750.07. A strike price of $80,000 leads the pack with over $39 million in open interest, followed closely by a $120,000 strike price with $36.5 million backing.
On the flip side, a significant amount of $39 million is also locked into the $45,000 put option, highlighting cautious bets on a potential market downturn amidst the election uncertainty.
Candidates’ crypto Stances Drive Market Speculation
The market's indecision is further fueled by the contrasting crypto stances of the leading US presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Trump, who previously criticized bitcoin as a "scam," has recently shifted his tone and expressed support for the crypto industry, promising to end the Biden administration's regulatory crackdown if elected.
Conversely, Harris's position on cryptocurrency remains elusive, with her campaign largely avoiding the topic. Speculations range from optimistic advancements in crypto regulation to a continuation of strict regulations similar to the current administration's approach.
Surveys suggest that a candidate's stance on cryptocurrencies plays a significant role in voters' decision-making process, with one survey indicating that one in three US voters consider crypto policies when casting their ballots. Trump's support in the crypto community is evident, while Polymarket data shows a close race between bettors favoring either Harris or Trump in the upcoming election.
As the market eagerly awaits the outcome of the election and its potential impact on the crypto industry, traders continue to position themselves strategically to navigate the post-election landscape with a blend of optimism and caution.
